The telecom industry is changing faster than ever—driven by new technologies, shifting customer expectations, and increasing cost pressures.
It seems like I’ve had a steady stream of coffees and calls lately with general managers and executives across telecom. Somewhere between my third Zoom of the day and realizing I’d been talking about BEAD funding or AI for two hours straight, a clear pattern emerged: most leaders fall into one of three buckets.
The first group is the emerging winners. They think differently, operate differently, and aren’t afraid to break away from the pack. (They’re also the ones who make me feel like I need to step up my game.)
The second group wants to be like the first. They know change is happening, and they know they can’t keep doing things the way they always have, but they’re not entirely sure where to begin. They have ideas, but they’re missing that clarity on how to actually move forward. This is the group I talk to most often.
And there’s the third group. I hate to say it, but they’re the ones insisting, “Everything’s fine, this will blow over like everything else.” I worry about them because by the time they realize change is required, it’ll be too late to do much about it.
Why the Telecom Industry Is Changing Faster Than Ever
If you’re in telecom, you already know the headlines. But just in case you need a reminder of how much is changing all at once:
- Starlink’s partnership with EchoStar signals that satellite telecom competitors are no longer emerging—they’re already competing directly with traditional broadband and rural telecom operators.
- Project Kuiper has officially become Amazon’s low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite initiative and is moving toward deployment, further intensifying competition in the satellite broadband market.
- BEAD funding awards are finally being issued, creating new opportunities for telecom operators—but also introducing complex challenges around permitting, construction timelines, supply chain constraints, and workforce availability.
- Tarana’s G2 fixed wireless technology is gaining real traction, delivering high-speed broadband (up to 1 Gbps) and expanding the competitive landscape for rural internet service providers.
- Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the telecom industry is accelerating, signaling a new wave of consolidation among broadband providers and infrastructure players.
- Competition in the mobile telecom market is heating up, highlighted by recent regulatory and legal tensions between major carriers like AT&T and T-Mobile over customer acquisition strategies.
- Artificial intelligence (AI), data centers, and digital infrastructure are becoming central to telecom strategy conversations, reshaping how operators think about growth, efficiency, and long-term value creation.
But here’s the thing: while those headlines grab all the attention, the fundamentals are quietly getting harder. That’s what keeps me up at night—and it’s exactly what I’m hearing from pretty much every executive I talk to.
Telecom Industry Challenges: Rising Costs, Shrinking Subsidies:
Government subsidies? Challenging to say the least. Nearly every leader I spoke with believes subsidies will decline. Even if they transition to a “model”, expectations are that support will be lower than what we’ve seen before.
Operating costs? Rising fast. Energy costs alone are now reaching 8–12% of operating expenses for some telecom operators, putting additional pressure on already tight margins. Equipment costs remain vulnerable to inflation and ongoing supply chain volatility.
And the workforce? The telecom industry is facing a significant labor shortage, particularly in skilled roles required for broadband deployment and infrastructure buildouts. The Government Accountability Office couldn’t have said it more clearly: the telecom industry is short thousands of workers—the exact workers we need to build all the infrastructure the federal funding is intended to support.
Charter’s CEO put it bluntly: “For all the construction that has to be done, there is no skilled labor force that’s currently out there.” The shortage is worst in rural and underserved areas—you know, exactly where most of you are trying to compete.
And customers? Customer expectations in telecom are evolving rapidly—especially among younger demographics who expect faster service, seamless digital experiences, and more flexible service models than traditional providers have offered.
So yes, the game is changing. New players, constantly changing rules, new opportunities—all happening while costs go up, subsidies decline, and rural hiring becomes even harder.
3 Winning Telecom Strategies from High-Performing Operators
What’s becoming clear is that winning requires a very different mindset. The old playbook simply doesn’t work anymore. And if you don’t adapt soon, there’s a real risk you won’t be around in five years. That might sound dramatic, but here’s the truth: most companies have reserves to coast through a year or two. But once decline starts, if you haven’t already started making changes, you’re going to be in a really tough spot.
So what are the emerging winners actually doing? Across my conversations, three themes keep coming up:
1. They’re opportunistic but smart about scale.
They’re not chasing every grant or expanding the same way they always have. Instead, they’re asking bigger strategic questions:
- How do we actually grow?
- How do we make this community more attractive to live in?
- What M&A opportunities should we consider?
- What new angles haven’t we explored yet?
2. They understand that real efficiency might require starting over.
Most people hear “efficiency” and think “cost-cutting.” But the winners take a broader, more strategic view. They ask:
- How quickly do we need to sign customers?
- How fast should installs happen?
- How fast should we restore an outage?
It’s about velocity—identifying the speed at which you need to operate and then figuring out how to exceed it. Sometimes that means rebuilding how you do things, not just tweaking around the edges.
3. They’re finding genuinely new revenue streams.
I’m not talking about adding bolt-on services. Those are great, but they’re not enough to move the needle. I’m talking about entirely new ways of monetizing what they already do. Questions like:
- How do we repackage our capabilities in new ways?
- What unique partnerships can we form?
- How do we create value in rural areas where it didn’t exist before?
So Why Aren’t More Companies Winning?
It comes back to the three groups I mentioned earlier. Making this shift requires a mindset change—and mindset shifts are hard. We’ve been fighting fires the same way for so long that it’s easy to miss the possibility of doing things differently.
And honestly, there’s just a lot of uncertainty about what to actually do. I’ve been talking to consultants in other industries too, and they’re hearing the same thing. This isn’t just a telecom challenge—it’s everywhere in the economy right now. Somehow that’s both comforting and a little terrifying.
Strategic Forecasting vs. Traditional Planning in Telecom
So, how do you actually start making these changes? How do you navigate all this uncertainty?
This is where scenario planning should help—but usually doesn’t. In most organizations, scenario planning covers only the first step: outlining the plausible scenarios. Best case, worst case, middle case. Then someone says, “If X happens, we’ll do Y,” and everyone feels like they’ve checked the strategy box.
But if you want an outcome that actually drives strategy—instead of reacting to it—you need to go further. (Remember, I warned you I like lists.)
And this is where I want to introduce an idea I heard today: Strategic Forecasting.
This is not the old-school strategic planning, which assumes a predictable future. Strategic Forecasting accepts uncertainty and focuses on shaping the outcome, not just preparing for it. Here’s how it works.
Step 1: PLAUSIBLE – Identify Realistic Telecom Market Scenarios
Start with the scenarios everyone already maps out. Identify realistic outcomes, not fantasies or worst-case catastrophes. Then run your financials against each one, including the uncomfortable ones.
Step 2: PREFERRED – Define Your Ideal Business Outcome
This is where most teams pack up and go home, but it’s where things get interesting. Stop for a second and ask: Among the plausible futures, which one do you actually want to build toward? Not wish for—work toward. This forces you to make real choices about where you’re going to compete and what you’re trying to build.
Step 3: POSSIBLE – Identify New Growth Opportunities
Now we’re getting growth. Given these likely changes, what new opportunities are present that weren’t before—what can you actually do to move toward that preferred future?
But here’s the key insight: you’re not just figuring out how to operate within these scenarios. You’re identifying where you can influence them. Where do you have leverage? What can you control versus what do you just need to adapt to?
Step 4: PROBABLE – Build an Execution Plan to Win
Final step: What needs to happen to make your preferred future and possible opportunities more probable?
- What roadblocks need to be removed?
- What skills need to be built or acquired?
- What strengths should be doubled down on?
Only then, you build your plan. But you’re building it from a completely different place—you’ve got clarity on what’s realistic, what you want, what you can control, and most importantly, you realize you actually have agency in shaping what happens next.
How Strategic Forecasting Changes the Way Telecom Leaders Think
This isn’t just a better planning process—though it absolutely is. It’s a different way of thinking about the future:
From predicting what will happen to shaping what happens
- From reacting to whatever comes to actively influencing outcomes
- From hoping you guessed right to being positioned to win no matter what
- From feeling like a victim of market forces to driving your position
You are now able to identify what you need to adapt and where you can actually change the game. Maybe you can’t stop subsidies from dropping, but you can redesign your cost structure. Maybe you can’t stop Starlink from entering your market, but you can choose exactly where and how you’ll compete.
The point is: you have more control than you think. You’re not helpless.
For telecom operators navigating uncertainty, the question is no longer whether change is coming, but how proactively you’re shaping your position within it. If you’re rethinking your telecom strategy, now is the time to move from reactive planning to strategic forecasting.